Coalition Context, Voter Heuristics and the Coalition Directed Vote (with Jean-Robert Tyran)

In contexts with multi-party governing coalitions national electorates employ heuristics that are adapted to the complexity of the political environment. Evidence from Denmark and Germany, indicates that voters acquire the heuristics that allow them to anticipate the types of coalitions that form after an election. Employing experimental vingettes

Why can Voters Anticipate Post-election Coalition Formation Likelihoods? (with David Armstrong)

A number of scholars have argued that, in contexts with multi-party governing coalitions, voters can  use historical patterns to  anticipate the ideological composition of  likely post- election coalitions and  make vote choices accordingly. In this paper we analyze historical coalition formation data from the period 1960e2007  in  order to  determ

Coalition-directed Voting in Multiparty Democracies (with Jeff May and David Armstrong)

Ideology is widely considered to be an important factor in shaping policy outcomes and in influencing election outcomes. We propose a theory of the coalition-directed vote. The argument suggests that voters anticipate the postelection bargains negotiated among potential members of the governing coalition and that these anticipated policy agreements